The big day arrives

Just made the mistake of tuning in to the E! channel's pre-pre-show (which runs an astounding six hours, until Ryan Seacrest takes the baton for the regular pre-show at 5). The host-bot was talking to one of the stars of "Miami Ink" (or was it "L.A. Ink"? Who can tell?) about the tattoos Viggo Mortensen wore in "Eastern Promises." Ummmm ... no thanks.

In this morning's New York Times, film critic A.O. Scott and media columnist (and Carpetbagger blogger) David Carr debate whether the Oscars really are worth all the fuss. Well, it's posed as a debate, but they're really not directly disagreeing with each other; Scott's main beef is that the entire movie industry is now geared toward the Oscars, releasing all their good stuff between September and December and dropping the good films that don't get nominated like yesterday's garbage. At any rate, they're both good reads.

OK. I know it's just three hours to showtime and I still owe you my picks -- which aren't really worth the paper they're written on since I haven't seen most of the movies and instead am relying almost entirely on the experts' picks. But here they are anyway.

First, the stone-cold locks among the top awards:

Best picture: No Country for Old Men
Best director: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Best supporting actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Original screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Adapted screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

If you didn't pick those six on your ballot, you're nuts, because the first rule of Oscar picks is DO NOT PICK UPSETS.

Now the two races that are a little more up in the air.

Best actress: Julie Christie (Away From Her) remains the solid favorite here, but there's been a lot of buzz building for Marion Cotillard of La Vie en Rose, with a few big shots like the NYT's Carr picking Cotillard to win the prize. So, just after telling you not to pick any upsets, I'm picking an upset: Marion Cotillard.

Best supporting actress: This one is completely up in the air, with Cate Blanchett being perhaps the narrow favorite for I'm Not There. But plenty of folks are picking Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster). With the votes being so badly split, I'm going with the Lifetime Achievement Award factor -- which can never be underestimated among old-skewing Oscar voters -- and picking Dee.

Now my picks for the other awards. Take them with a Dead Sea-sized grain of salt.

Animated feature: Ratatouille
Foreign-language film: The Counterfeiters
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Film editing: No Country for Old Men
Art direction: Sweeney Todd
Costume design: Atonement
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Visual effects: Transformers
Sound mixing: Transformers
Sound editing: Transformers
Original score: Atonement
Original song: "Falling Slowly," Once
Documentary feature: No End in Sight
Documentary short: Freeheld
Animated short film: I Met the Walrus
Live-action short film: Tanghi Argentini

That's it. Now bring on the show.