For me, the race for best director is a tough one to figure. I know what movies I like and I have a pretty good idea what makes a good acting performance, but let's face it: I don't know the first thing about directing a movie.
Used to be you could bank on the best director trophy going to whoever directed the best picture, but not anymore: the two awards have gone splitsville four years out of the past eight.
This year, Martin Scorsese is seen as a lock for his work on The Departed, but it feels more like a lifetime achievement award. It's a good movie, but most agree that it's not Scorsese's best.
Of the other nominees, The Queen is more notable for its script and Helen Mirren's performance than for Stephen Frears' direction. Babel is too polarizing of a film, and the Japanese storyline connects to the rest of the film by only the slenderest of threads. Letters From Iwo Jima might be the most finely crafted film of them all, but Clint Eastwood has been honored before, and this isn't his year.
It won't happen, but the critics' darling for an outside chance for an upset is Paul Greengrass for United 93. I haven't seen it yet, but I will by Sunday -- it's burning a hole in its Netflix sleeve atop my TV stand, but the fact that my wife won't watch it makes for TV-scheduling difficulties.
Best director: Martin Scorsese
Tomorrow: Best picture
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If Scorsese wins, I hope it's not as an honorary lifetime achievement award. I also don't know much about directing, but I'm skeptical that The Departed was a more demanding directorial job than U93 or Letters.
While The Queen is my favorite of the Oscar-nominated movies and my 3rd overall favorite movie of 2006 (after Akeelah and the Bee and The Prestige), I'll agree with your reasoning about its direction.
I totally agree about Babel. I felt it stretched out too little story over too long a running time. Because of that, I'm surprised by both the Best Director and Best Editing nominations.
Letters From Iwo Jima must have been quite an undertaking. If Eastwood loses, I hope it's not simply because he's already won recently.
I'm really curious what you end up thinking about United 93. I know I'm waayyyy in the minority on this, but I thought his directing was the most evidently spectacular of the five. The tone, pace, and look of the film, and the logistics it took to make it, are all excellent.
My preferences:
(1) Paul Greengrass
(2) Clint Eastwood
(3) Martin Scorsese / Stephen Frears
(4) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Who Got Snubbed: Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Who Got Really, Really Robbed: Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)
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