This is the one major Oscar that is truly up in the air. Most prognosticators are pretty evenly divided among The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine and Babel, with some saying that Letters From Iwo Jima and The Queen have an outside shot. Here's how I see the race shaping up:
Letters From Iwo Jima: If I had a ballot, I just might vote for Clint Eastwood's finely crafted film, which comes the closest of any of the nominees to the word "masterpiece." But among Academy voters, the fact that it's almost entirely in Japanese hurts it, and Eastwood has had his share of honors in recent years. I know: Not fair, but that's how it works with the Academy.
The Queen: Don't get me wrong: This is a good film, deserving of its nomination. But it's pooh-poohed (unfairly) in some quarters as being better suited for BBC America than for the big screen, despite the standout performance by Helen Mirren. Scratch this one off the list.
Babel: This may be the most ambitious film of the five, and it has a strong contingent of supporters. But it also has too many turn-offs to prevail among Academy voters. For example, the fragmented, nonlinear plot -- I know, if didn't hurt Crash last year, but that was set in L.A., and there's a disease that the Academy hasn't been entirely cured of yet, and that's xenophobia.
Little Miss Sunshine: Is it me, or has the Sunshine buzz faded a bit? Even more so than Babel, it has a dedicated core of supporters, but also plenty of detractors: It's a feel-good movie, it's a comedy, it's got a cute kid. Too many reasons for too many Academy members not to vote for it.
The Departed: In a fragmented field like this, it might come down to the film that has the fewest strikes against it, and this year that film is The Departed. There's a lot of pro-Scorsese sentiment in the Academy this year -- Gee, Marty, sorry we stiffed you all those years -- and with no favorite in the field, this brisk, tight, crowd-pleasing thriller will be the default choice for a lot of voters. No, The Departed isn't a great film, but it's a good film, and in a year like this it's going to be good enough.
Now that said (you know what they say, any given Sunday ...), if you can hedge your bets in your Oscar pool by putting in more than one entry, this is the year to do it. I know I will.
Best picture: The Departed
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2 comments:
Here's my order of preference:
(1) The Queen: This one comes the closest to flawless for me. It feels slightly artsy but still entertaining. Tight script, good directing, stellar performance, good locations & cinematography, etc.
(2) Letters From Iwo Jima: Excellent re-creation of battle scenes, huge scope, great performances, surprisingly un-bothered by the foreign language & subtitles; a little long & monotonous, not thrilled with the muting of the colors almost to greyscale.
(3) The Departed: Intense & well-designed plot, good directing, great performances; not thrilled with the dialogue (specifically, the *excessive* profanity).
(4) Babel: Huge scope, interesting locations, good performances; waaaayy too long for the amount of story there is, storylines not connected in as interesting of ways as it's getting credit for, not great closure at the end.
(5) Little Miss Sunshine: A few funny parts, a few nice character moments, some interesting locations & cinematography; some unlikable dialogue, some annoying character traits, horrendous ending.
Are you sure that Letters being in Japanese could hurt it? Babel is getting a lot of buzz, but it's 25% English, 25% Spanish, 25% Japanese, and 25% Arabic. Babel may have more English in it than Letters, but Babel has subtitles from not just one but three different languages.
>> Are you sure that Letters being in Japanese could hurt it?
I think it's a turn-off for some older Academy voters, but that may have been more true 10+ years ago than today. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, that's for sure.
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